Bet 23 - STORMY WEATHER - 15.15 - Doncaster
His hurdling was not fantastic in his last race at Aintree, where he finished 3rd. That slip up has seen the 3 year old reverting back to the flat for another run. He looks to be un-exposed compared to many of this field, and is certainly a horse on the upgrade. He has shown huge promise, especially when also finishing 3rd, this time at Haydock in a competitive 3 year old handicap back in the early summer. With the newly crowned apprentice champ on board, Stormy Weather can show he has the class to make the frame here, and do so at a nice price.
1pt e/w
Saturday, 7 November 2009
Friday, 6 November 2009
Bet 22
Bet 22 - KANGAROO COURT - 14.50 - Wincanton
Already a winner this season, it would be nice to see Kangaroo Court win again before the ground goes against him and he is put away till the spring. Last time, at Cheltenham, he beat a number of useful types, including Red Admiral - whom he reopposes today. His jumping was excellent at Cheltenham, and another clean set of jumps will see him go close in this one. The Nicholls runner will be popular, but I think that Emma Lavelle's inmate has better form so far this year, and is a progressive looking type with a big future ahead of him.
2pts win
Already a winner this season, it would be nice to see Kangaroo Court win again before the ground goes against him and he is put away till the spring. Last time, at Cheltenham, he beat a number of useful types, including Red Admiral - whom he reopposes today. His jumping was excellent at Cheltenham, and another clean set of jumps will see him go close in this one. The Nicholls runner will be popular, but I think that Emma Lavelle's inmate has better form so far this year, and is a progressive looking type with a big future ahead of him.
2pts win
Bet 21
Bet 21 - TASHEBA - 14.05 - Wincanton
A nice looking race here, where some of the hurdling big guns come out. Celestial Halo should probably have won the Champion Hurdle last season and is a very decent hurdler, but has been off track for over 200 days - a fairly long lay off, and with Paul Nicholls not yet firing on all cylinders I will happily take him on. I would have done so even if one of my horses to follow was not opposing. Tasheba was last seen finishing a creditable 4th at the Royal meeting on the flat. Prior to that, he had not finished out of the places over hurdles. With the stable coming back to form, he stands a decent chance of finishing in the money again tomorrow.
1pt e/w
A nice looking race here, where some of the hurdling big guns come out. Celestial Halo should probably have won the Champion Hurdle last season and is a very decent hurdler, but has been off track for over 200 days - a fairly long lay off, and with Paul Nicholls not yet firing on all cylinders I will happily take him on. I would have done so even if one of my horses to follow was not opposing. Tasheba was last seen finishing a creditable 4th at the Royal meeting on the flat. Prior to that, he had not finished out of the places over hurdles. With the stable coming back to form, he stands a decent chance of finishing in the money again tomorrow.
1pt e/w
Bet 20
Bet 20 - DIAMOND BROOK - 12.40 - Wincanton
Diamond Harry came to prominence last year, giving Nick Williams some headlines as an up and coming trainer. This season, Diamond Brook should well add to his list of victories and help cement his position as a very handy trainer. Highly regarded by his yard, Diamond Brook raced once, finishing second at Ludlow behind Acordean. He jumped well that day, and was put away for the year afterthat. After 7 months off the track he reappeared last month at Bangor, where he finished a respectable 4th of 11 after his lengthy lay off. That was a decent looking race, and Diamond Brook did well to finish as close as he did. He will have come on for that run, and with his excellent jumping style he should be in with an excellent chance here tomorrow. Forecast as being 5/1, he will be backed each way.
1pt E/W
Diamond Harry came to prominence last year, giving Nick Williams some headlines as an up and coming trainer. This season, Diamond Brook should well add to his list of victories and help cement his position as a very handy trainer. Highly regarded by his yard, Diamond Brook raced once, finishing second at Ludlow behind Acordean. He jumped well that day, and was put away for the year afterthat. After 7 months off the track he reappeared last month at Bangor, where he finished a respectable 4th of 11 after his lengthy lay off. That was a decent looking race, and Diamond Brook did well to finish as close as he did. He will have come on for that run, and with his excellent jumping style he should be in with an excellent chance here tomorrow. Forecast as being 5/1, he will be backed each way.
1pt E/W
Summary
MANYRIVERSTOCROSS won in style on Wednesday at odds of 8/11, he really looked at home over hurdles, and is clearly an exciting prospect for the Novice Hurdle events at Cheltenham. SOMERSBY won cosily on his first adventure over fences, beating Straw Bear very easily, this time at odds of 11/10. Today, VOLER LA VEDETTE won, again, with ease in Ireland. She really is a progressive looking mare who is winning in style, beating some handy opponents. She was backed today, and went off the 5/4 favourite.
Bets - 19
Wins - 10
Places - 2
Losses - 7
Bank - 205pts
P/L - 5pts
Bets - 19
Wins - 10
Places - 2
Losses - 7
Bank - 205pts
P/L - 5pts
Last catch up!
Bet 19 – VOLER LA VEDETTE - Down Royal 14.05
The exciting mare runs for the second time this year, after winning her re-appearance at Punchestown 3 weeks ago. That victory has seen her move up a stone in the ratings, and therefore she has also moved up in Grade to this level. This is usually quite an informative race, last year won by Jered, and it would be no surprise of the winner here does go onto win fancy races at the end of season festivals. Voler La Vedette has only been headed once over hurdles, when finishing 5th in a decent race last year, although slightly below par that day, she has since bounced back, and the way she won last time out was impressive. However, the calibre of her rivals has also improved, and today she must take down GO Native – an impressive Cheltenham Festival winner who has also already won this season. Voler La Vedette is an improving type though, and she should have more to offer. If that is the case, then victory today is by no means an impossibility.
2pts win
The exciting mare runs for the second time this year, after winning her re-appearance at Punchestown 3 weeks ago. That victory has seen her move up a stone in the ratings, and therefore she has also moved up in Grade to this level. This is usually quite an informative race, last year won by Jered, and it would be no surprise of the winner here does go onto win fancy races at the end of season festivals. Voler La Vedette has only been headed once over hurdles, when finishing 5th in a decent race last year, although slightly below par that day, she has since bounced back, and the way she won last time out was impressive. However, the calibre of her rivals has also improved, and today she must take down GO Native – an impressive Cheltenham Festival winner who has also already won this season. Voler La Vedette is an improving type though, and she should have more to offer. If that is the case, then victory today is by no means an impossibility.
2pts win
Catching up...
Bet 14 - PANDORAMA - Punchestown - 15.25
After missing the end of season festivals last season, Noel Meade's Pandorama makes his debut over fences at Punchestown on Tuesday in a 2m4f Novice Chase. He should be all the rage in the betting, having only been defeated once last season, when he ran in the Cheltenham Festival winner Mikael D'aguenet. That loss aside,Pandorama dominated every race he contested last season. An enormous looking horse, he should make the ideal chaser, and Noel Meade has said the Gold Cup is this horse's long term goal. Although he takes on 20 runners here, he sould have the class to confirm that he is a superstar in the making.
2pts win
After missing the end of season festivals last season, Noel Meade's Pandorama makes his debut over fences at Punchestown on Tuesday in a 2m4f Novice Chase. He should be all the rage in the betting, having only been defeated once last season, when he ran in the Cheltenham Festival winner Mikael D'aguenet. That loss aside,Pandorama dominated every race he contested last season. An enormous looking horse, he should make the ideal chaser, and Noel Meade has said the Gold Cup is this horse's long term goal. Although he takes on 20 runners here, he sould have the class to confirm that he is a superstar in the making.
2pts win
Bet 15 - BOUGLLER - Kempton 2.30
Bougller has won 2 hurdles races from 3 starts over timber and has only been beaten by Mikhael D'Haguenet. When winning very decent Grade 2 event at Aintree he looked very useful, beating some highly respected hurdlers in Ainame, Copper Bleu and Trenchant. He looks well treated on the basis of that form here and should take some beating, despite being forecasted at 7/1. Emma Lavelle is becoming more and more highly respected in the trainig ranks, and she may well have a pretty useful hurdler on her hands here.
1pt E/W
Bougller has won 2 hurdles races from 3 starts over timber and has only been beaten by Mikhael D'Haguenet. When winning very decent Grade 2 event at Aintree he looked very useful, beating some highly respected hurdlers in Ainame, Copper Bleu and Trenchant. He looks well treated on the basis of that form here and should take some beating, despite being forecasted at 7/1. Emma Lavelle is becoming more and more highly respected in the trainig ranks, and she may well have a pretty useful hurdler on her hands here.
1pt E/W
Bet 16 - Royal Charm - 2.30 Exeter
An exciting prospect from the Paul Nicholls yard makes his seasonal reappearance here tomorrow in Royal Charm. Still a novice this season, Royal Charm made a very pleasing debut in Britain when finishing second in a pretty hot looking race at Sandown in February. After being heavily backed that day, he ended up second best, but drew an impressive distance clear of the 3rd horse. He was given time off after that run to settle into the yard, and now is back to try and win his first race. He has been compared by Nicholl's to Big Bucks, so he has a pretty lofty reputation already at Ditcheat, and it should be exciting to see this horse progress as the year goes on. The yard won this race last year, and although they have not made a red hot start to the season, Royal Charm must be given a huge amount of respect here. Naturally for a Paul Nicholls talking horse, he will not be a price to write home about - but a win is a win, and I need something to get me back on track after a few recent losses.
2pts win
An exciting prospect from the Paul Nicholls yard makes his seasonal reappearance here tomorrow in Royal Charm. Still a novice this season, Royal Charm made a very pleasing debut in Britain when finishing second in a pretty hot looking race at Sandown in February. After being heavily backed that day, he ended up second best, but drew an impressive distance clear of the 3rd horse. He was given time off after that run to settle into the yard, and now is back to try and win his first race. He has been compared by Nicholl's to Big Bucks, so he has a pretty lofty reputation already at Ditcheat, and it should be exciting to see this horse progress as the year goes on. The yard won this race last year, and although they have not made a red hot start to the season, Royal Charm must be given a huge amount of respect here. Naturally for a Paul Nicholls talking horse, he will not be a price to write home about - but a win is a win, and I need something to get me back on track after a few recent losses.
2pts win
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
Updating
After being away for a week, the blog has fallen slightly behind. I will take time over the next few days to bring things back up to speed.
Totals -
Bets - 16
Wins - 7
Places - 2
Losses - 7
Bank - 199pts
P/L - -1pt
Totals -
Bets - 16
Wins - 7
Places - 2
Losses - 7
Bank - 199pts
P/L - -1pt
Bets 17 and 18
Bet 17 – MANYRIVERSTOCROSS – 14.05 Chepstow
A recent convert from the flat – Manyriverstocross is an interesting contender in this 2m maiden hurdle. The contest looks weak, and if Manyriverstocross has been well schooled, which presumably is the case, then this should not take too much winning. He was a very decent handicapper on the flat, and the cross to hurdling could be taken in his stride. His recent 2nd at Doncaster, behind Nanton over a trip just shy of 2m shows us that he is in decent form, and if he takes to jumping then he could be very interesting indeed over the next few months.
2pts win
Bet 18 – SOMERSBY – 14.30 Warwick
This is a nice looking Novices Chase race, in which a couple of interesting contenders meet. Straw Bear was excellent over hurdles, but so far, has not really displayed the same form over the fences. Henrietta Knight has only run Somersby 6 times over hurdles, but in that time, he reached a mark of 141 – last seen finishing 3rd in a decent race at Aintree back in February. His fitness must be taken on trust, but with such a long lay off since his last race, he will have been well schooled at home, and should be ready to take the switch to fences.
2pts win
A recent convert from the flat – Manyriverstocross is an interesting contender in this 2m maiden hurdle. The contest looks weak, and if Manyriverstocross has been well schooled, which presumably is the case, then this should not take too much winning. He was a very decent handicapper on the flat, and the cross to hurdling could be taken in his stride. His recent 2nd at Doncaster, behind Nanton over a trip just shy of 2m shows us that he is in decent form, and if he takes to jumping then he could be very interesting indeed over the next few months.
2pts win
Bet 18 – SOMERSBY – 14.30 Warwick
This is a nice looking Novices Chase race, in which a couple of interesting contenders meet. Straw Bear was excellent over hurdles, but so far, has not really displayed the same form over the fences. Henrietta Knight has only run Somersby 6 times over hurdles, but in that time, he reached a mark of 141 – last seen finishing 3rd in a decent race at Aintree back in February. His fitness must be taken on trust, but with such a long lay off since his last race, he will have been well schooled at home, and should be ready to take the switch to fences.
2pts win
Friday, 23 October 2009
Bet 10 - NOBLE ALAN - 15.25 Aintree
Really nice looking horse who won last years Scottish Champion hurdle in good style, before impressing recently on his chasing bow at Hexham. That day he displkayed a perfect round of jumping, and quickened very nicely to win very cosily. Tomorrow, AP McCoy takes the ride on the grey, and he will be hard to beat in a very small field, where he may well just get his own way again. Likely to be a short price, at around EVS, but this could prove very good value nonetheless. I am really taken by his jumping style, and would not be surprised if he wa contesting in some very decent races at the AIntree or Cheltenham festivals come the end of the season. The form of the Scottish Champion Hurdle is holding, with Snap Tie recently winning over fences, and I think that Noble Alan will prove very difficult to beat this season.
2pts WIN @ 4/9
2pts WIN @ 4/9
Bets 8 and 9 ALFIE SHERRIN AND PRINCE TAIME - Chepstow 13.55
Once gain, 2 of my horses to follow oppose each other here, this time in a really interesting listed hurdle race. Hobbs states that he is unsure as to where Prince Taime will end up this season, There is the option to go chasing with him, but he is on record as saing that if he makes a successful start over hurdles the that is where he might stay. He has ran some very good races in the past, winning 4 from 9 and being placed a further 4 times - showing great consistency. He sees this distance out, and must have a chance of placing here. Richard Johnson never instils confidence, and he takes the ride tomorrow, which may be viewed as a slight negative, but he is clearly a talented horse who may have the class to win a number of races like this this season. Alfie Sherrin has the same connection sas the previously mentioned Aitenn Thirtythree, and like the forementionned, has also won at this track. Infact, Alfie Sherrin has never lost and is being tipped as a very exciting prospect this season. A real galloper, there is talk of him being aimed at the RSA chase at the festival. This raises a slight concern that this trip may be slightly on the short side, and he may actually need a bit further, but with the class this horse possesses he must be given a chance here.
2pts win ALFIE SHERRIN
1pt E/W PRINCE TAIME
2pts win ALFIE SHERRIN
1pt E/W PRINCE TAIME
Bets 6 and 7 - AITEEN THIRTYTHREE AND REVE DE SIVOLA - Chepstow 13.20
With 'to follow' lists, you often get the same horses running in races against one and other. This happens here, and if I am to make a profit out of the race I am going to have to be quite lucky, as Reve De Sivola is likely to be a very short price... Saying that, I must stick to the 'formula' of the thread, as by not doing so in the past I have missed out on some very nice winners 
With absolutely no recent form to go on, the 6 runners in the 13.20 are all making their seasonal bow, and it looks like a very interesting little race. The Nicholls trained Aiteen Thirtythree is an ex English Pointer who has been bought by the Denman connections to run over hurdles this year with the intention of eventually going chasing with him. He won his bumper at the Welsh venue last year, after being well backed to do so, and he returns there tomorrow for his first hurdles race. He beat Qroktou in his bumper, who has gone on to win a decent race at Newbury. In Chepstow bumper that pair drew a mile clear of the field, so the form is clearly very good. I expect him to make a decent debut here tomorrow, we all know he will have been schooled very well, and he must have every chance. However, the one he will have to beat is Reve De Sivola. Having only ever been beaten by Walkon, Zaynar, R De Rien Sivola and Simarian, he has some excellent form in the book, none more so than he very impressive sixth in the Triumph at last years festival. If he picks up where he left off then he will be very hard to beat this season. The forecast price does not hugely instill confidence, as he may well be odds on, but I guess he has the form to justify that price, against a relatively unknown field. One slight concern is that he has never won, but surely it is only a matter of time before that statistic has changed....?
2pts AITEEN THIRTYTHREE win @ 6/5
2pts REVE DE SIVOLA win @ 6/4
With absolutely no recent form to go on, the 6 runners in the 13.20 are all making their seasonal bow, and it looks like a very interesting little race. The Nicholls trained Aiteen Thirtythree is an ex English Pointer who has been bought by the Denman connections to run over hurdles this year with the intention of eventually going chasing with him. He won his bumper at the Welsh venue last year, after being well backed to do so, and he returns there tomorrow for his first hurdles race. He beat Qroktou in his bumper, who has gone on to win a decent race at Newbury. In Chepstow bumper that pair drew a mile clear of the field, so the form is clearly very good. I expect him to make a decent debut here tomorrow, we all know he will have been schooled very well, and he must have every chance. However, the one he will have to beat is Reve De Sivola. Having only ever been beaten by Walkon, Zaynar, R De Rien Sivola and Simarian, he has some excellent form in the book, none more so than he very impressive sixth in the Triumph at last years festival. If he picks up where he left off then he will be very hard to beat this season. The forecast price does not hugely instill confidence, as he may well be odds on, but I guess he has the form to justify that price, against a relatively unknown field. One slight concern is that he has never won, but surely it is only a matter of time before that statistic has changed....?2pts AITEEN THIRTYTHREE win @ 6/5
2pts REVE DE SIVOLA win @ 6/4
3rd, money back after a decent effort.
My copy and paste from my work computer didn't work very well this morning - I took the 4/1 for Deauville Flyer. Didn't run a bad race, as finished 3rd after drawing well clear with the eventual winner and runner up. The winner is clearly improving, and I think that Deauville Flyer has certainly got a bit more in him too. Certainly one to keep an eye on in the future.
Win bets - 5
Wins - 3
Places - 2
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6
Wins - 3
Places - 2
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6
Bet 5
Bet 5 – DEAUVILLE FLYER – Doncaster 16.05
Somewhat of a surprise to see Deauville Flyer continue to run on the flat, but I am going to include this bet on the NH thread as I am pretty certain that next time we see him he will be competing in hurdle events. A lightly raced 3 year old, having only raced 7 times, Deauville Flyer is probably still open to improvement. He is in good nick, with his last 2 races seeing him finish 2nd and 1st, only being beaten a length by Dulcie last time out at York. The 3 year old has shown he is capable of running well on the forecast soft ground aswell, having won at Haydock on heavy going the start before last. Another positive is the fact that he has already won at Doncaster. Hopefully, there will not me more than 2 non runners, thus allowing 4 places on an each way bet. Forcasted price – 6/1. This will almost certainly be his last run on the flat of the season, before making a hurdles bow in the next few months, as Tim Easterby has already described him as being a lovely prospect over hurdles.
1pt E/W
Somewhat of a surprise to see Deauville Flyer continue to run on the flat, but I am going to include this bet on the NH thread as I am pretty certain that next time we see him he will be competing in hurdle events. A lightly raced 3 year old, having only raced 7 times, Deauville Flyer is probably still open to improvement. He is in good nick, with his last 2 races seeing him finish 2nd and 1st, only being beaten a length by Dulcie last time out at York. The 3 year old has shown he is capable of running well on the forecast soft ground aswell, having won at Haydock on heavy going the start before last. Another positive is the fact that he has already won at Doncaster. Hopefully, there will not me more than 2 non runners, thus allowing 4 places on an each way bet. Forcasted price – 6/1. This will almost certainly be his last run on the flat of the season, before making a hurdles bow in the next few months, as Tim Easterby has already described him as being a lovely prospect over hurdles.
1pt E/W
Thursday, 22 October 2009
Loss
Doeslessthanme finishes 2nd, a disappointing 12 lengths behind the very well backed Fiendish Flame. From reading about the race it seems as though Doeslessthanme didn't quite stay the trip, however, I think that perhaps the ground caught him out and he ended up being badly outpaced. His jumping appears to have been sound, with the exception of one error, so he is certainly one to keep on side. Will be interesting to see under what conditions he next appears...
Win bets - 4
Wins - 3
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6
Win bets - 4
Wins - 3
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6
Bet 4 - DOESLESSTHANME
Bet 4 – DOESLESSTHANME – Carlisle – 2.40
An exciting novice chaser from the powerful Howard Johnson yard makes his seasonal debut today. He was only ever beaten by 2 horses last season, in the smart Alfie Flits and Knockara Beau – who both went on to have highly successful seasons. These 2 defeats both came in black type races, so his record of 5 wins from 7 is impressive. He has decent track form, and has won over todays distance. Howard Johnson is a prolific trainer at the track, with a respectable 24% strike rate with his chasers. He has nominated this horse as his ‘one to follow’ for the season, and it would be no surprise if he won today, at odds of around 3/1.
2pts win
An exciting novice chaser from the powerful Howard Johnson yard makes his seasonal debut today. He was only ever beaten by 2 horses last season, in the smart Alfie Flits and Knockara Beau – who both went on to have highly successful seasons. These 2 defeats both came in black type races, so his record of 5 wins from 7 is impressive. He has decent track form, and has won over todays distance. Howard Johnson is a prolific trainer at the track, with a respectable 24% strike rate with his chasers. He has nominated this horse as his ‘one to follow’ for the season, and it would be no surprise if he won today, at odds of around 3/1.
2pts win
Pride of Dulocte wins.
He may have been 1/3, but he was hugely impressive, and has now been cut to 16/1 for the RSA chase at The Festival. An absolutely inch perfect round of jumping at Worcester yesterday, sees a 100% record for the season continue.
Bets - 3
Wins - 3
Bank - 208pts
P/L - +8pts
Bets - 3
Wins - 3
Bank - 208pts
P/L - +8pts
Tuesday, 20 October 2009
First Paul Nicholls runner of the season - Bet 3.
Bet 3 - PRIDE OF DULCOTE - Worcester 15.50
My third bet of the season sees me backing a Ditcheat runner for the first time this season. I am sure there will be many many Ditcheat runners over the next few months... Tomorrow, smart hurdler Pride Of Dulcote jumps his first fence in public after a summer break. According to Nicholls, he has schooled well, and with Nicholls being so open about his horses' chances I am very confident that we will see a very decent novice chaser tomorrow. Unfortunately, only 3 others line up in this heat, thus restricting the price to what will probably be an odds on shot. However, in the field of 4 there is some decent opposition. Captain Americo is no slouch, and Any Currency has the big advantage of already having had a run this season, however, I do think that Pride Of Dulcote will have too much for this field. I am sure that the Nicholls team will have far superior races in mind for this exciting prospect later on in the season.
2pts win
My third bet of the season sees me backing a Ditcheat runner for the first time this season. I am sure there will be many many Ditcheat runners over the next few months... Tomorrow, smart hurdler Pride Of Dulcote jumps his first fence in public after a summer break. According to Nicholls, he has schooled well, and with Nicholls being so open about his horses' chances I am very confident that we will see a very decent novice chaser tomorrow. Unfortunately, only 3 others line up in this heat, thus restricting the price to what will probably be an odds on shot. However, in the field of 4 there is some decent opposition. Captain Americo is no slouch, and Any Currency has the big advantage of already having had a run this season, however, I do think that Pride Of Dulcote will have too much for this field. I am sure that the Nicholls team will have far superior races in mind for this exciting prospect later on in the season.
2pts win
Sunday, 18 October 2009
Starluck added to the list to follow.
Have added Starluck onto the list. He was a nice hurdler last year, who appears to have progressed nicely over the break. His win yesterday was ridiculous, did not even break a sweat. Certainly one to have on your side this season IMO.
Win bets - 2
Wins - 2
Losses - 0
Bank - 207pts
P/L - +7
Wins - 2
Losses - 0
Bank - 207pts
P/L - +7
Bet 2 wins
Kangaroo Court drifted out and went off the EVS favourite. Kangaroo Court looked like a really nice prospect yesterday. A few erratic jumps around half way round, but he quickened up nicely up the hill, and held off the challengers. His win keeps up the good start to the season for the thread, long may it continue...
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