Bet 10 - NOBLE ALAN - 15.25 Aintree

Really nice looking horse who won last years Scottish Champion hurdle in good style, before impressing recently on his chasing bow at Hexham. That day he displkayed a perfect round of jumping, and quickened very nicely to win very cosily. Tomorrow, AP McCoy takes the ride on the grey, and he will be hard to beat in a very small field, where he may well just get his own way again. Likely to be a short price, at around EVS, but this could prove very good value nonetheless. I am really taken by his jumping style, and would not be surprised if he wa contesting in some very decent races at the AIntree or Cheltenham festivals come the end of the season. The form of the Scottish Champion Hurdle is holding, with Snap Tie recently winning over fences, and I think that Noble Alan will prove very difficult to beat this season.

2pts WIN @ 4/9

Bets 8 and 9 ALFIE SHERRIN AND PRINCE TAIME - Chepstow 13.55

Once gain, 2 of my horses to follow oppose each other here, this time in a really interesting listed hurdle race. Hobbs states that he is unsure as to where Prince Taime will end up this season, There is the option to go chasing with him, but he is on record as saing that if he makes a successful start over hurdles the that is where he might stay. He has ran some very good races in the past, winning 4 from 9 and being placed a further 4 times - showing great consistency. He sees this distance out, and must have a chance of placing here. Richard Johnson never instils confidence, and he takes the ride tomorrow, which may be viewed as a slight negative, but he is clearly a talented horse who may have the class to win a number of races like this this season. Alfie Sherrin has the same connection sas the previously mentioned Aitenn Thirtythree, and like the forementionned, has also won at this track. Infact, Alfie Sherrin has never lost and is being tipped as a very exciting prospect this season. A real galloper, there is talk of him being aimed at the RSA chase at the festival. This raises a slight concern that this trip may be slightly on the short side, and he may actually need a bit further, but with the class this horse possesses he must be given a chance here.

2pts win ALFIE SHERRIN
1pt E/W PRINCE TAIME

Bets 6 and 7 - AITEEN THIRTYTHREE AND REVE DE SIVOLA - Chepstow 13.20

With 'to follow' lists, you often get the same horses running in races against one and other. This happens here, and if I am to make a profit out of the race I am going to have to be quite lucky, as Reve De Sivola is likely to be a very short price... Saying that, I must stick to the 'formula' of the thread, as by not doing so in the past I have missed out on some very nice winners  With absolutely no recent form to go on, the 6 runners in the 13.20 are all making their seasonal bow, and it looks like a very interesting little race. The Nicholls trained Aiteen Thirtythree is an ex English Pointer who has been bought by the Denman connections to run over hurdles this year with the intention of eventually going chasing with him. He won his bumper at the Welsh venue last year, after being well backed to do so, and he returns there tomorrow for his first hurdles race. He beat Qroktou in his bumper, who has gone on to win a decent race at Newbury. In Chepstow bumper that pair drew a mile clear of the field, so the form is clearly very good. I expect him to make a decent debut here tomorrow, we all know he will have been schooled very well, and he must have every chance. However, the one he will have to beat is Reve De Sivola. Having only ever been beaten by Walkon, Zaynar, R De Rien Sivola and Simarian, he has some excellent form in the book, none more so than he very impressive sixth in the Triumph at last years festival. If he picks up where he left off then he will be very hard to beat this season. The forecast price does not hugely instill confidence, as he may well be odds on, but I guess he has the form to justify that price, against a relatively unknown field. One slight concern is that he has never won, but surely it is only a matter of time before that statistic has changed....?

2pts AITEEN THIRTYTHREE win @ 6/5
2pts REVE DE SIVOLA win @ 6/4

3rd, money back after a decent effort.

---

My copy and paste from my work computer didn't work very well this morning - I took the 4/1 for Deauville Flyer. Didn't run a bad race, as finished 3rd after drawing well clear with the eventual winner and runner up. The winner is clearly improving, and I think that Deauville Flyer has certainly got a bit more in him too. Certainly one to keep an eye on in the future.

Win bets - 5
Wins - 3
Places - 2
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6

Bet 5

Bet 5 – DEAUVILLE FLYER – Doncaster 16.05

Somewhat of a surprise to see Deauville Flyer continue to run on the flat, but I am going to include this bet on the NH thread as I am pretty certain that next time we see him he will be competing in hurdle events. A lightly raced 3 year old, having only raced 7 times, Deauville Flyer is probably still open to improvement. He is in good nick, with his last 2 races seeing him finish 2^nd and 1^st, only being beaten a length by Dulcie last time out at York. The 3 year old has shown he is capable of running well on the forecast soft ground aswell, having won at Haydock on heavy going the start before last. Another positive is the fact that he has already won at Doncaster. Hopefully, there will not me more than 2 non runners, thus allowing 4 places on an each way bet. Forcasted price – 6/1. This will almost certainly be his last run on the flat of the season, before making a hurdles bow in the next few months, as Tim Easterby has already described him as being a lovely prospect over hurdles.

1pt E/W

Loss

Doeslessthanme finishes 2nd, a disappointing 12 lengths behind the very well backed Fiendish Flame. From reading about the race it seems as though Doeslessthanme didn't quite stay the trip, however, I think that perhaps the ground caught him out and he ended up being badly outpaced. His jumping appears to have been sound, with the exception of one error, so he is certainly one to keep on side. Will be interesting to see under what conditions he next appears...

Win bets - 4
Wins - 3
Losses - 1
Bank - 206pts
P/L - +6

Bet 4 - DOESLESSTHANME

Bet 4 – DOESLESSTHANME – Carlisle – 2.40

An exciting novice chaser from the powerful Howard Johnson yard makes his seasonal debut today. He was only ever beaten by 2 horses last season, in the smart Alfie Flits and Knockara Beau – who both went on to have highly successful seasons. These 2 defeats both came in black type races, so his record of 5 wins from 7 is impressive. He has decent track form, and has won over todays distance. Howard Johnson is a prolific trainer at the track, with a respectable 24% strike rate with his chasers. He has nominated this horse as his ‘one to follow’ for the season, and it would be no surprise if he won today, at odds of around 3/1.

2pts win

Pride of Dulocte wins.

He may have been 1/3, but he was hugely impressive, and has now been cut to 16/1 for the RSA chase at The Festival. An absolutely inch perfect round of jumping at Worcester yesterday, sees a 100% record for the season continue.

Bets - 3
Wins - 3
Bank - 208pts
P/L - +8pts

First Paul Nicholls runner of the season - Bet 3.

Bet 3 - PRIDE OF DULCOTE - Worcester 15.50

My third bet of the season sees me backing a Ditcheat runner for the first time this season. I am sure there will be many many Ditcheat runners over the next few months... Tomorrow, smart hurdler Pride Of Dulcote jumps his first fence in public after a summer break. According to Nicholls, he has schooled well, and with Nicholls being so open about his horses' chances I am very confident that we will see a very decent novice chaser tomorrow. Unfortunately, only 3 others line up in this heat, thus restricting the price to what will probably be an odds on shot. However, in the field of 4 there is some decent opposition. Captain Americo is no slouch, and Any Currency has the big advantage of already having had a run this season, however, I do think that Pride Of Dulcote will have too much for this field. I am sure that the Nicholls team will have far superior races in mind for this exciting prospect later on in the season.

2pts win

Starluck added to the list to follow.

Have added Starluck onto the list. He was a nice hurdler last year, who appears to have progressed nicely over the break. His win yesterday was ridiculous, did not even break a sweat. Certainly one to have on your side this season IMO.

Win bets - 2
Wins - 2
Losses - 0
Bank - 207pts
P/L - +7

Bet 2 wins

Kangaroo Court drifted out and went off the EVS favourite. Kangaroo Court looked like a really nice prospect yesterday. A few erratic jumps around half way round, but he quickened up nicely up the hill, and held off the challengers. His win keeps up the good start to the season for the thread, long may it continue...

Bet 2

KANGAROO COURT - 17.00 Cheltenham

Winner of 3 from 6 of his races already, Kangaroo Court runs for the second time this season in a small field 2 and a half mile chase at Cheltenham tomorrow. Looks like a very good opportunity to prove that he can handle the track, after disappointing in the Supreme Novices at the Festival. He has won since that poor run, with a very decent display of jumping at Lingfield and another decent win recently at Uttoxeter. Jack Doyle gets on well with the horse and takes the ride again tomorrow, with the ground in Kangaroo Court's favour he should win this without too much hassle.

2pts win

Cheltenham - Sat 17th October

First trip to Prestbury Park of the season tomorrow, looking forward to it.

Quite a few decent looking races aswell :)

The Arkle

I see Sizing Europe also won well today over fences in Ireland and has been slashed in price for the Arkle. Now just 10/1 for the big race. Not sure about this myself, he always seems to be pretty hit and miss, and for the price I would prefer to back the machine that is Mikael D'haguenet...

Bet 1 wins

So, Voler La Vedette wins cosily at Punchestown. She went off at 5/2, showing a 5pts profit for the season. I enjoyed watching the prices for the race on Betfair whilst at work, as I was unable to sneak away from my room to watch the race on my mobile. 

I would imagine that the mare will be aimed at some pretty prestigious races later in the season after winning this listed contest. Her trainer, Colm Murphy, seems to think that she is still improving, so she really could turn into something fairly special.

Who knows - maybe the mares only race at the Festival may be the ultimate target... We shall see come March.

None of the stable horses are running tomorrow, but I am very much looking forward to attending my first jumps meet of the season in Cheltenham on Saturday.

Bet 1

So, this second post is a but cheeky, as the horse has already ran, but hey ho. The analysis was posted on www.punterslounge.com earlier today however.

Bet 1 - Voler La Vedette 

First bet of the thread, and the new NH season takes me to Ireland for a decent enough looking Mares only hurdle. The Colm Murphy trained mare has won 4 from 6 starts and won twice in October last year. Infact, she has only been unplaced on one occasion, when seen finishing 5th at Fairyhouse in April. The trainer holds her in very high regard, stating that they are going to target her at the 'better class' of races this year. Surely an indication that she has come on since last seen in May, and should be a force to be reckoned with when she does run this season.

2pts win

Horses to follow

Welcome to my first attempt at blogging my way through an entire National Hunt Season...

Over the course of the National Hunt season I have selected a stable of horses that I will be concentrating on. These horses include: hurdlers, chasers and bumper horses, and range from the novices right the way through to Gold Cup contenders. 

It is hoped that backing these horses to a level stakes plan will result in a profit being shown come the end of the National Hunt season. 

Horses with a forecasted starting price of 5/1 or higher will be backed each way, with horses forecasted a starting price of less than 5/1 being backed to win only.

Paddy Power will be used to place the bets, to take advantage of their 'Best Odds Guaranteed' offer, and various other special offers they are sure to include throughout the course of the season.

The stable of horses for the 2009/10 season: 

Aiteen Thirtythree (IRE)

Alaivan (IRE)

Alfie Sherrin (GB)

Aran Concerto (IRE)

Ballybriggan (IRE)

Barbers Shop (GB)

Bensalem (IRE)

Big Buck's (FR)

Big Zeb (IRE)

Binocular (FR)

Bouggler (GB)

Cappa Bleu (IRE)

Cooldine (IRE)

Copper Bleu (IRE)

Deauville Flyer (GB)

Definity (IRE)

Denman (IRE)

Diamond Brook (IRE)

Diamond Harry (GB)

Doeslessthanme (IRE)

Dunguib (IRE)

Equus Maximus (IRE)

Finian's Rainbow (IRE)

Great Endeavour (IRE)

Inchidaly Rock (IRE

Kangaroo Court (IRE)

Karabak (FR)

Kauto Star (FR)

Killyglen (IRE)

Lidar (FR)

Mac Aeda (GB)

Manyriverstocross (IRE)

Master Minded (FR)

Master of Arts (USA)

Michel Le Bon (FR)

Mikael D'haguenet (FR)

Noble Alan (GER)

Oscar Whisky (IRE)

Pandorama (IRE)

Premier Sagas (FR)

Pride Of Dulcote (FR)

Prince Taime (FR)

Punchestowns (FR)

Qozak (FR)

Quantitativeeasing (IRE)

Quwetwo (GB)

Rare Bob (IRE)

Reve De Sivola (FR)

Riverside Theatre (GB)

Royal Charm (FR)

Solwhit (FR)

Somersby (IRE)

Sports Line (IRE)

Steady Tiger (IRE)

Stormy Weather (FR)

Tarablaze (IRE)

Tasheba (GB)

The Betchworth Kid (GB)

Tocca Ferro (FR)

Turbo Island (GB)

Vino Griego (FR)

Voler La Vedette (IRE)

Walkon (FR)

Wishfull Thinking (GB)

Zaynar (FR)